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Live trading results vs simulated returns: an evidence hierarchy

Understand why screenshots, backtests, demo statements and live brokerage records have different evidentiary value.

RESEARCH NOTE · 2026-11-08 · 2 MIN READ

A vendor may publish a chart labeled “verified,” “real money” or “AI powered.” Those words do not tell the reader whether positions were actually executed, all losses were included or the statement covers the full trading history.

Four different kinds of evidence

A marketing screenshot is easy to curate and offers little independent context. A backtest shows hypothetical trades under a stated simulation. A demo or paper-trading statement shows simulated execution under a live sequence of market prices. A live brokerage statement can show real fills and costs but still requires checking completeness, custody and independent verification.

Execution changes the numbers

A strategy may assume it buys exactly at a candle close and sells exactly at a signal price. Real orders can be delayed, partly filled or rejected. Swap charges, spreads and funding may differ by broker and account size. MetaTrader’s documentation distinguishes testing modes and models delay and price movement during execution.

Ask for the denominator

A claim such as “90% profitable trades” is incomplete without average win, average loss and the period studied. Nine wins of $10 and one loss of $200 still produce a net $110 loss before costs. High win rate therefore does not equal positive expectancy.

  • Full observation period and all traded accounts.
  • Cash flows separated from trading gains.
  • Open equity, fees and maximum drawdown.
  • Independent or platform-only verification status.

A responsible comparison

We will describe the source of each performance claim and avoid placing backtested and live percentages in one sortable leaderboard as if they were equivalent. Missing live data will remain an explicit limitation, not a favorable assumption.

EXPLORE THE NUMBERS

Forex position size & risk calculator

Change assumptions yourself. This free calculator uses transparent arithmetic; it does not predict a strategy’s future results.

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Risk reminder: Trading leveraged CFDs may result in substantial losses. Past strategy results do not predict your own future results. This guide is for education and is not personalized investment advice.